How Arcadia achieves energy cost accuracy at scale

As energy rates continue to rise, we’ve been exploring why energy cost accuracy is critical — and extraordinarily difficult to achieve.

The challenges are substantial: data access, complex tariffs, hidden rate criteria, unreliable utility data, calculation complexity, and scale requirements that make manual approaches impractical.

The result? Even large enterprises with dedicated energy teams and internal software tools struggle to achieve sufficient accuracy to inform investment decisions.  

Cost complexities: From thousands of options to a single result

Consider this example illustrating the challenge of energy cost calculations: 

Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) is a large California utility that assigns rate schedule B-19 to its medium-large C&I customers. But there isn’t a single version of B-19. In fact, PG&E’s tariff book dedicates 26 pages to B-19, covering 18 defined rates that represent thousands of different combinations.

To appropriate apply B-19, you need to capture the following information:

• Is the customer subscribed with a CCA, on Direct Access, or buying supply directly from PG&E?
• Do they have onsite generation? Do they have onsite storage?
• If they have onsite solar, is it an islanded system or do they sell electrons back to the grid?
• If they are selling back to the grid, what version of Net Energy Metering (NEM) are they on and what is their interconnection year? 
• Are they served at primary, secondary, or transmission-level voltage?
• Are they a non-profit eligible for low-income discounts like CARE?
• Are they enrolled in demand response programs like Peak Day Pricing?

These are a sampling of the different inputs that drive different prices for the same tariff. Frustratingly only a small portion of these inputs are explicitly listed on the utility bill, the rest must be inferred from other context clues or probabilistic assumptions.

Arcadia has developed an innovative approach to distill the nearly unlimited tariff input combinations into a single, verifiable result, while also validating key calculation inputs like billing data and interval data. Through two foundational offerings — Automated Tariff Assignment (ATA) and Cost Validation Service (CVS) — we achieve 99% energy cost calculation accuracy at portfolio scale.

Here's how we do it.

Automated Tariff Assignment: From manual to automatic

Identifying the correct utility tariff for an energy cost calculation is a fundamental, yet surprisingly difficult step. As utilities offer a multitude of tariffs, various versions, and inconsistent names on bills, even experienced analysts can spend hours researching a single meter just to confidently determine the applicable tariff.

Arcadia’s Automated Tariff Assignment (ATA) service transforms this manual, time-intensive process into an automated, repeatable outcome.

1. Automated Data Extraction Arcadia's Plug utility connector automatically retrieves bills from utilities and then extracts tariff strings and context clues.
2. Intelligent Matching We run SQL queries against our proprietary mapping table of tariff string combinations. Advanced matching logic handles abbreviations, variations, and utility-specific naming conventions. Context clues like customer class and load size refine matching accuracy.
3. Quality Assurance Built-in QA logic verifies each match against expected patterns: High-confidence matches flow through automatically, while uncertain matches get flagged for expert review.
4. Expert Review Arcadia's tariff analysts review flagged meters, using their deep subject matter expertise and historical precedents to assign the correct tariff. 

The end result is that each meter gets assigned a ”Master Tariff ID” — linking Arcadia’s Plug and Signal applications to save hours of manual work and set the foundation for all downstream cost calculations.

Arcadia is already performing ATA at scale, processing 500,000+ meter-tariff assignments automatically and continuously. We’re currently achieving an 80% automatic match rate without manual intervention, which we expect to improve as we standardize more tariffs into our process. The remaining 20% of meters with complex edge cases and ambiguous tariff strings are assigned matches through expert review.

Cost Validation Service: Proving accuracy through triangulation

Identifying the tariff is only half the battle. You also need to verify you're using the correct rate criteria, validate your data quality, and prove your calculations are accurate.

That's where Arcadia’s Cost Validation Service (CVS) comes in. CVS achieves unparalleled accuracy through systematic triangulation of multiple inputs:

1. Utility Bills: Total charges and detailed line items, as stated by the utility.
2. Interval Data: 15-minute consumption data (kWh) and peak demand values (kW) from AMI meters.
3. Tariff Data: Arcadia's database of over 30,000 tariffs, converted into structured models that capture rates, charge categories, time-of-use periods, options, riders, and more.
4. Tariff Calculator: Proprietary calculation engine that enables us to process the modeled tariffs to recreate bills and produce an effective cost of electricity. 

Arcadia automates collection of utility billing and interval data through our Plug product, validating interval data completeness and checking alignment between interval totals and billed consumption. We then identify the required rate criteria, determining the specific parameters needed for billing calculations. 

Finally, we run our Signal calculation engine with the relevant tariff, rate criteria, and interval data. By comparing calculated charges to actual billed charges, CVS surfaces hidden tariff calculation parameters and verifies the accuracy of all data inputs.

For each meter, CVS delivers:

• Tariff and Rate Criteria Details: Assigned tariff and full list of parameters used in calculation
• Accuracy Metrics: Statement-calculation agreement fraction (e.g. 99.5% match) between total charges, consumption, and demand measurements.
• Audit Notes: When accuracy is below a determined threshold, specific explanation of what's causing the discrepancy and recommendations for remediation or acceptance.

This transparency is critical. Arcadia doesn't just claim accuracy – we prove it through bill recreation and explain deviations when they occur.

The Foundation for Everything Else

ATA and CVS create a validated foundation that makes every downstream analysis credible:

✅ Bill Auditing: Identify utility billing errors before they compound

✅ Budget Forecasting: Project future costs based on validated historical data

✅ Tariff Optimization: Confidently evaluate alternatives knowing your baseline is accurate

✅ DER Savings Analysis: Model solar/storage/EVs with validated cost calculations

✅ Energy Project M&V: Establish credible baselines for measurement and verification

The Arcadia Difference

Arcadia's success in achieving unparalleled energy cost accuracy is driven by a combination of proprietary technology – our unified data model and advanced energy analytics – and deep subject matter expertise. Here’s what sets Arcadia apart:

• Accuracy: Across Arcadia's portfolio, we achieve a median bill recreation accuracy of 98.4%, a material improvement over alternative software tools or internal processes, both of which achieve less than 90% accuracy. That ~10% difference is the distinction between reliable analysis and expensive guesswork.
• Coverage: Arcadia can deliver ATA and CVS to customers across the US. Our platform enables automated data access coverage for >97% of utility tariffs, >95% of utility billing statements, and over 75% of AMI meters for interval data.  
• Speed & Scale: Arcadia analyzes thousands of accounts at once, leveraging technology automation to reduce time-consuming and error-prone manual interventions. Our platform processes 75K rate updates per month, and performs nearly one billion tariff calculations annually.
• Expertise: Our team of 50+ tariff analysts, many with decades of experience, provide strategic advice and deliver the contextual information needed for maximum impact. 

ATA and CVS represent a true leap forward, enabling investment-grade accuracy that’s never been achievable before at enterprise scale. We’re excited to provide this level of validated, continuous energy intelligence and further our mission of helping businesses unlock a future of abundant, affordable clean energy.