Commercial Electricity Rate Report 2026

The era of predictable electricity costs is over. For the first time in two decades, demand is outpacing supply, moving electricity from a back-office expense to a source of significant supply uncertainty and C-suite risk.

Arcadia’s Commercial Electricity Rate Report covers:

• The New Baseline: Why 5.9% is the new median CAGR for commercial rates, moving twice as fast as historical benchmarks.
• The Fallacy of Averages: Why hyper-local data is the only way to navigate extreme price dispersion and regional shocks, such as the 12x surge in PJM capacity costs.
• Five Strategic Mandates: Actionable steps for enterprise leaders to move from passive estimation to dynamic scenario forecasting.

Behind the Data

Using Signal — Arcadia’s high-accuracy bill simulation engine and comprehensive database of over 30,000 North American electric tariffs — paired with commercial building load profiles from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), we modeled costs from 2020 through 2025 for typical building types at a sample of US utilities. Moving beyond high-level state trends and utility averages, this report provides insight into electricity cost trends by specific building types and utility tariffs, including a breakdown of costs by individual charge components.